Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Observations of American Society From A Recent Returnee

As some might be aware, I was not living in the US for 8 straight years. I have recently returned to spend the next year and I've taken note of some things are quite different:

Positive changes:


-The younger generation of females (25 and below) seems to be rejecting the feminist hatred of the previous generation. This is encouraging, but we are not out of the woods. They still enjoy and partake in female social privilege, but they are less aggressive about it.

-People seem a bit less materialistic than before. This is surely due to the recessionary economy and it needs to translate into a higher regard for knowledge, experience, and relationships with family/friends. We are not there yet.

-There seems to be more ethnic tolerance than ever before. Tolerance does not equate with affinity mind you, but there is a a greater ease with people who are different in most cases. It is yet to be seen whether this is just a more covert hostility or genuine capitulation to changing demographics.


Negative changes:


-There is larger paranoia about men in the US.  I was talking with an attractive bartender and a decent-looking bar patron in Baton Rouge. We were chatting about travel and at one point the bartender remarked that she would love to travel more but she would never travel alone since it is so dangerous out there. The patron agreed with her and remarked that she never leaves the hotel unless her boyfriend is along. I believe this paranoia is self-imposed and derives from the guilt of female privilege in America. In other countries, women 10 times hotter than these two walk the streets alone at night even in areas considered high crime.

-There is a foolish arrogance in American men like never before. Coming off as confidant even in the face of ignorance is very prevalent. Think back to the government officials who balked that a 9/11 scenario could ever happen in the US, or the fools that believe the US is the greatest country in the world for virtually everything, or the dolts that believed our economy will never flounder in crisis because we are in the USA.

-Women here are more fat and unattractive as ever. Hard economic times contributes to a decrease in a population's beauty due to poorer dietary habits and less favorable living conditions. I am aghast at how decent-looking men resort to such unsightly creatures in the US now.

-There are far more immigrants in the landscape than ever before. High-end places that were once WASP and Jewish are now largely Asian, Indian, and White now. On the lower end, there are far more people of third-world origin all around. While this might be a negative in the larger sense, it may be a blessing in disguise as third world nations are the least feminist. This may be the last hope for overcoming feminist orthodoxy in America!

-Crude informality is the norm now. It is rare for young people to have common courtesy and respect for elders in the US. Everything is informal and nothing is sacred nowadays. These flash mobs and wilding youths in Philadelphia will be a recurring and spreading phenomenon as the children of wayward children are coming of age.

-Before we used to rail against the entitlement mentality of females. Now males exhibit this mentality to a lesser degree. This is most obvious in the area of employment. Young people walk around pining for employment, but they refuse to take a job that is "beneath them."  If you are unemployed, there is no job that is beneath you, none. For this reason, the unemployment rate remains high at 9%. People are seeking the job that they think they deserve, not the job that they need. This will change when things get worse however.

-There is also a greater overall lack of sophistication of the US population regarding politics and economics. Most Americans do not know what the Federal Reserve does. Most Americans do not know what the President's role in the economy is, yet a President is elected or re-elected almost solely on the state of the economy. A President can certainly not "create jobs" other than hiring more federal employees. A President CAN assist Congress in creating an economic environment for jobs to be created, but he cannot "create jobs" like most Americans expect. If the unemployment rate dips 5% during the next year, it will not have been because of the President's creating jobs.

-Foreigners are beating native-born Americans at their own game. The children of many immigrant groups are developing financial, educational, and social savvy that our children are failing to develop due to their inability to delay gratification. Look at the freshmen classes of our Ivy League institutions. They are increasingly immigrant, and more power to them.

Conclusion: The world is passing by the US before our eyes. Our people are poorly educated or trained, our children child care castoffs, and our adults are resting in the laurels of former American preeminence. Change is inevitable in a society, especially one a fluid as the US. Simply willing your way to remain at the top without the requisite effort is a prescription for failure as a society. We are failing.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Would You Trust This Arrogant Nerd's Financial Advice?


Sometimes we Americans can allow our financial better judgment to be suspended by clever marketing, polished wall street analysts, and the seductive power of CNBC, CNNf, etc. It was not enough to endure the dot.com bubble from 1995-2001. Oh no, Americans listened to the same pinheads tell them to stay fully invested for the long term, and to diversify their portfolios over a wide variety of stock classes.

Those who fell for this nonsense are now paying the price for their misplaced trust.

I removed the greater portion of my stock holdings in 2007 in reaction to the felling of market overvalue. My reaction was private as I did not want to subject myself to the jeers of my peers. I have been vindicated, no doubt, by the market drop of 2008-2009.

The myth of "diversifying" over a wide variety of stock classes is not diversification AT ALL. I fell for this scam back in the late 1990's but then noticed that all stocks (even international ones) were highly correlated in trend. No variety of stock classes would have saved anyone in the current downturn!

My point of this piece is to urge you to spread your assets between US dollars in a reputable US credit union (not a bank); a Euro cash account in a country like Switzerland, Germany, or France; the US stock market (10 to 25 percent according to your time horizen); a municipal bond fund; and precious metals like gold and silver (via ETFs like GLD or SLV). This is the diversification.

I do believe we all should be dollar cost averaging into the US stock market at the present time, but we should be doing it moderately and with the intention to continue over the next several years.

US stocks will correct again and again. When the doom and gloom are heavy on CNBC, that is the time to take chunks of your wealth and bottom feed an S&P 500 or Wilshire 4500 fund. This is called contrarian investing and you will reap great rewards if you can purchase cheap shares when the pessimism is high.

Resist the nerds who want to be fully invested at all times so their fees can still be generated from your holdings. They are out for their interests, not yours. You've been warned.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

What Your Stocks Have to Return So You Can "Break Even."

Think of the current bear market in these terms. If your stocks go down by the down figure, the up figure is what you need to see in order to "break even." This is scary as we approach the 50% decline.

If you are down by: You need to see a return of the following to break even:

Down 5% Up 5.27%
Down 10% Up 11.1%
Down 20% Up 25%
Down 30% Up 43%
Down 40% Up 67%
Down 50% Up 100%
Down 60% Up 150%
Down 70% Up 233%
Down 80% Up 400%
Down 90% Up 900%
Down 95% Up 2000%

Anything down over 50% could take YEARS to earn back(if ever), so protect your nest eggs!

On the other hand, this is a silver lining for the contrarian investor like myself. Regardless of what people have been saying about dollar cost averaging, it works in protracted bear markets like this one. This is the best opportunity to invest since I have been investing (since 1997). Think like a contrarian; profit like a contrarian!